Kenya Airways has increased Nairobi-New York JFK flights to daily for most of the winter, continuing what it has this summer. With seven departures a week, the 7,360-mile (11,844 km) route requires 2.5 Boeing 787-8s, a considerable amount.
It inevitably continues to be a loss-making and high-risk route, more so at such a high frequency. Previously, Kenya Airways’ former CEO, Sebastian Mikos, said, “I do not consider JFK to be a lucrative route.” Indeed, it surely continues to undermine the airline’s attempt to turn around its fortunes, which in the first half of 2023 saw a net loss of US$151 million.
Kenya Airways to JFK
The flag carrier’s first New York flight was in October 2018, making it a contender for JFK’s most exotic carrier award. Between then and the end of 2022, the US DOT T-100 data shows that Kenya Airways has carried 371,000 roundtrip passengers with an average seat load factor (SLF) of 75.6%.
In the first five months of 2023, SLF varied between 86.7% (April) and 90.1% (January). While that was high, the number of filled seats (i.e., traffic vs. capacity) is just one part of the route performance puzzle.
Until recently, Kenya Airways had expected to serve JFK three to four weekly for most of the Northern Hemisphere winter, from October 29th to March 30th. Now there will be many more seats to fill, potentially increasing losses considerably.
Served by the 234-seat Boeing 787-8, Kenya Airways’ sole widebody type, it is scheduled as follows, with all times local:
- Nairobi to JFK: KQ2, 23:35-06:35+1 (15h 0m block time)
- JFK to Nairobi: KQ3, 13:45-11:15+1 (13h 30m)
Where do JFK passengers go?
According to the US DOT, Kenya Airways carried 32,110 passengers between January and May 2023. Relating this to booking data shows that approximately:
- 36% of passengers transferred from another flight in JFK to/from Nairobi
- 30% were point-to-point (they only flew between JFK and Nairobi)
- 21% of JFK passengers connected to other Kenya Airways flights in Nairobi
- 13% transferred to other flights in both Nairobi and JFK
The single greatest proportion of passengers transferred in JFK to/from the Kenyan capital. It shows how vital its codeshare relationship with fellow SkyTeam member Delta is as a traffic source for this route. Booking data tells that Columbus-JFK-Nairobi was the most popular market, with the Ohio city home to a rapidly growing population from sub-Saharan Africa.
Transferring over Nairobi
About one in five JFK passengers connected in Nairobi to other parts of Africa, with the top 10 origins and destinations shown on the map below. Transfer traffic tends to be lower-yielding and more expensive to carry than P2P, and is therefore less desirable for long-haul routes.
Not surprisingly, JFK-Nairobi-Johannesburg was by far the most popular market. It helps that Kenya Airways is well set up for this market, with a highly competitive journey time to South Africa of around 19h 35m and 20h 10m back (based on December). Very few airlines have a quicker alternative.
