An estimated 11 per cent of global greenhouse gas emissions are due to tourism, and that is predicted to double by 2050, the year scientists have forecast at the tipping point for all sorts of ecological disasters. Our planet will have warmed 1.5C (2.7F) above preindustrial times by then. If emissions are left unchecked, this warming will accelerate, bringing forth a distinctly heightened level of cataclysmic weather patterns according to Travel Foundation, Envision 2030 Report.
Past and recent research observes that in the past few years, problems surrounding tourism have intensified at major destinations in Africa including Kenya, South Africa, Seychelles, Mauritius, and Tanzania. The number of tourists was growing at a fast pace until 2019. In line with this, greenhouse gas emissions from tourism have also increased and this trend is likely to continue in 2023.
In 2019, tourism contributed about 11percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. There are growing pressures on the tourism industry to reduce this. According to Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) report published in 2021, Global tourism arrivals will rise by 30 percent in 2023, following 60 percent growth in 2022, but they will still not return to pre-pandemic levels. The economic downturn and sanctions on Russia and China’s zero-COVID strategy will be among the factors weighing heavily on the industry.
Travellers’ awareness of the environmental consequences of tourism may also change their travel plans to Africa as a destination in 2023. According to the European Investment Bank, 37 percent of Chinese people, 22 percent of Europeans and 22 percent of Americans say that they will avoid flying to Africa because of climate-change concerns. Some of those who still want to travel will be prepared to pay higher prices for eco-friendly options, or carbon-offsetting efforts. Regulators will pile on the pressure too. 2023 will see the conclusion of the voluntary pilot phase of the Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation to reduce emissions from international flights.
Even though several scholars and researchers have attempted to quantify domestic and international tourism emissions for select African destinations based on publicly available data, there is no exact figure to quantify the emissions as most recommendations are pegged on estimates. However, the figures are shocking, with tourism emissions contributing to as much as 20-30 percent of total emissions in countries like Switzerland.
This, along with the fact that no standard and transparent carbon reporting is being done, is worrisome since the industry lacks momentum to reduce carbon emissions.
The longest-distance flights are defined as round trips of more than 9,941 miles, for instance, from New York to Cairo. They are the hardest to decarbonize according to the EIU report and that is why they must remain static at 2019 levels for the next 27 years for tourism to reach net zero. (Net zero means to curb emissions as close to zero as possible. Fuel, energy efficiency and infrastructure reduced emissions the most, but even maximizing them was not sufficient to reach net zero by 2050 when accounting for the certainty that tourism will grow.
Left unchecked, the report shows that long-haul aviation is expected to quadruple its emissions by 2050 to reach 41 percent of total tourism emissions. As it stands, long-haul flights are not yet back at 2019 levels as per the EIU report.
Like most industries, tourism remains in slow motion especially in Africa as it begins to tackle its negative impact on a planet whose health is vital to it.
A Bloomberg report of February 2022 noted that as it stands, destinations in Africa are already feeling outsized human impacts from climate change and vainly awaiting compensation from richer nations. Exacerbating the problems is a lack of access to greener technologies that Europe can access to funding for tourism businesses to adapt and decarbonize rapidly.
As the push to decarbonize picks momentum in the continent, travel businesses and destinations are beginning to change how they operate. They intend to lead travellers to experience places and activities differently.
Because consumers alone will not solve much, governments, hotels, tour operators, cruise operators and the aviation industry need to lead with additional policies to encourage better decision-making.
What exactly is needed to fix tourism emissions problems?
The answer is simple, and Bloomberg reported in October 2022 that it needs 100 percent sustainable aviation fuels by 2050 to power air travel. It can grow by increasing the share of short-haul trips over time from 69 percent in 2019 to 81 percent by 2050 while global travellers rein in the number of long-distance flights they take every year until at least 2050.
Tourism stakeholders keen on promoting sustainable tourism advise that finding markets that are a little shorter haul is desirable noting that even a 10 percent reduction in emissions is a welcome achievement for destinations. Under this background, tour operators in Africa might also change the destinations they offer, particularly to travellers generally focused on booking any “beach and sand” experience rather than a specific place.
According to African Travel and Tourism Association, sustainability challenges are becoming more apparent and urgent, notably in Africa, especially concerning climate change, pressure on resources, communities, and threats to endangered species.
The African tourism product is highly dependent on the conservation of wildlife and the preservation of a rich cultural identity, accessed through authentic visitor experiences.
Visitors are also expressing choice and the services they purchase destinations they are choosing and the services they are purchasing. Those organizations and businesses that demonstrate a concern for the well-being of local people, wildlife and the environment reflect a sense of responsibility which carries credibility and value.
Following the above, radical changes are needed in 2023 for the tourism industry. Even in the face of a climate crisis that is increasingly impacting destinations, the sector is making big promises while changing nothing much in terms of the implementation of its policies and commitments towards carbon emission reduction. Also, the depth of the tourism slump in 2020 – 2021 means that strong growth is near inevitable in 2023 now that travel restrictions have been lifted in most African countries. It is a dilemma that somehow governments, tourism and aviation players must work together to strike a balance.
